The Atlantic tropics could see a brief uptick in activity later this week as forecasters monitor an area of potential development over the western Atlantic, northeast of the Bahamas.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), an area of low pressure is expected to develop along a weakening frontal boundary, a few hundred miles south of Bermuda, over the next day or so. As this system gradually organizes, it could acquire some subtropical characteristics by the weekend.
At this time, development is expected to be slow, and conditions are not particularly favorable for significant tropical organization. The NHC currently gives the disturbance a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance over the next seven days.
Environmental Conditions and Development Potential
One factor worth monitoring will be the system's ability to separate from the weakening frontal boundary. Since this disturbance is expected to originate from a frontal feature, any initial organization would likely be more characteristic of a subtropical system rather than a traditional tropical cyclone.
Even if some subtropical characteristics develop, significant strengthening is not currently anticipated.
Forecast Track and Impacts
Over the coming days, the developing low is expected to drift across the western Atlantic before eventually turning eastward or northeastward. By early next week, the system is forecast to encounter increasingly unfavorable environmental conditions, which should limit any additional development.
At this time, there are no threats to the United States.
While the Atlantic hurricane season is approaching its conclusion on November 30, the western Atlantic remains an area worth monitoring for occasional late-season development.
The current forecast suggests this disturbance will remain relatively weak and has only a low probability of becoming a subtropical system.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
