UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 21, 2019 — Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast
REWIND: Humberto produced some great waves Monday and Tuesday! but then the wind got a hold of it and blew it out. Near VAS conditions the past couple days.
Looks like I went on a surf trip to a tropical island, nope..a nice swell at home thanks to #HurricaneHumberto this week! Thanks @JRCATS9 for getting some sick shots of me! #flsurf #florida #surf #surfing #beach #humberto #humbertoswell #stormsurf #surfer #surfing #soflo #ocean pic.twitter.com/XGM3HFGQrg
— James Wieland (@SurfnWeatherman) September 20, 2019
SURFCAST DISCUSSION
Relentless onshore wind will continue to blow out any long period swell from Humberto through the weekend thanks to strengthening high pressure off Hatteras. Maybe find an inside shorebreak and it could be fun, but the drift will be quite fast to the south. Groundswell part slowly tapers off through the beginning of the week but we should still have some windchop as the winds don't calm down until Tuesday. There could be some small clean-up leftovers Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning upcoast as the wind finally drops off completely and goes offshore in the mornings. And some swell from Jerry will start filling into central Florida by then. That's only temporary though as the wind will pick back up blowing in more windchop over next weekend.
Hurricane Jerry: Jerry is hanging on as a tropical storm. It's on the smaller scale of storms which isn't great for swell. It is forecast to recurve well east of the Bahamas. It doesn't look like it'll be close enough or strong enough to punch a channel swell through, so it won't give any swell to south Florida. I normally use 70 west latitude as the line to cross for a channel swell and a strong hurricane. It will send a swell upcoast into central Florida though, That will mix in with the already northeast swell in the water. Maybe it'll make it more peaky, or it could just close it out. Wind looks decent starting Wednesday, but only briefly
DAILY SURFCAST SPECIFICS:
SUNDAY: Chest to shoulder high windchop. Wind ENE 20-25kts
MONDAY: Surf drops more, waist to maybe chest high northeast windchop, maybe some underlying groundswell mixing in. Wind NE 15-20kts.
TUESDAY: Wind comes down more as does the surf. Could be fun and cleaner-ish in the morning with waist plus swell still coming in. Bigger upcoast with some Jerry swell behind it. Wind NE 10-12kts.
WEDNESDAY: Wind finally dies, and even goes offshore in the morning. Some small knee high clean-up waves for Palm Beach County, Waist to stomach upcoast with some Jerry swell making it in.
THURSDAY: Small PBC but upcoast a clean Jerry swell in the morning then the wind swings around onshore chopping it up. Then windchop takes over again for the weekend.
FRIDAY: Small/flat
LONG RANGER SURFCAST:
A strong tropical wave near the windward islands is quickly becoming better organized. It is forecast to cross the islands into the Caribbean, then move up toward Puerto Rico and back into the Atlantic. This one could be interesting as it may end up being a wanderer if it gets left behind by the trough that's pulling Jerry north. Something to keep an eye on as there will be some crazy model solutions and a lot of uncertainty with this one right now.
Watching another system coming off Africa that models are interested in. They have it becoming a hurricane as it treks across the Atlantic. Early runs have it being pulled north pretty early, but if it becomes a big powerful hurricane, central/northern Florida should see a good pulse from it. Local winds may still be an issue. Still a ways out, like the beginning of October. There are signals showing that the Atlantic could stay active through most of October. We just need the local winds to cooperate every once in a while and we'll be alright!
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