UPDATED: MARCH 25, 2019 — Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast
REWIND: Small bump up in windchop Sunday.
SURFCAST DISCUSSION
Watching the chances for a larger swell this week, but at first glance it looks like it will be all blown out. There is a chance though....another couple hr window perhaps.... to see some clean surf.
First, Low pressure moves off Hatteras Monday night/Tuesday morning instantly creating a good fetch pointed at us as it strengthens offshore and moves East. That will send a pulse of longer period swell that has about a 2-2.5day travel time. Then along the front attached to it another low is spawned and strengthens off the central Florida coast and moves east. This increases our local winds a lot, and also sends a shorter period swell our way... Both swells may be in the water at the same time at some point so we may run into the same situation as last time where it doubles up and is a bit wonky at times(probably Thursday). Model differences are only the difference between epic and VAS lol. The Euro is stronger, and keeps the winds offshore longer, but remember the last low the Euro was WAY off. Had it entirely too strong and too west. The GFS keeps going back and forth with having offshore winds Wednesday afternoon, or side/onshore winds as the swell fills in. I think there will at least be a window of cleaner conditions before the wind gets on it and blows it out. By Thursday the longer period swell fills in and probably makes it wonky with double ups and close outs. South Florida never does that good with multiple swells in the water. I think this will punch all the way down to Miami for a short time. Wind will be better for longer down there(Wednesday before sunset and Thurday morning may have some good stuff down south). Since the fetch is pretty long, the swell will last into Friday or even Saturday. Even though winds will come down, they will stay onshore though.
DAILY SURFCAST SPECIFICS:
MONDAY-TUESDAY: Minimal.
WEDNESDAY: Flat in the morning with offshore winds. Northeast swell builds in quickly through the day. There may be a couple hr window where the swell arrives and the winds are still offshore(best guess is 11-1pm right now) There is also a slight chance the wind will stay offshore the rest of the day and not turn until Thursday as per the Euro. Size will build to head high by the end of the day. Wind NW turning north 20-25kts.
THURSDAY: Swell and wind peak overnight and into the morning hours. Size will be well overhead and near VAS conditions with multiple swells in the water. WInd 20-30+kts. Euro still has offshore winds but the GFS and other models do not. If there is a time of offshore it will be brief in the early morning hours. It will hold on longer the farther south you head. More likely will be a NNE wind which will make the drift crazy fast, unless you can find protection. Size will be well overhead groundswell mixed with windchop and near VAS conditions. WInd NNE 20-30kts, strongest in the morning, letting up some late in the day.
FRIDAY: Chest-head high choppy groundswell with wind turning from NE to ENE through the day as the swell fades. Late in the day dropping to waist to chest and more manageable.
SATURDAY: Waist to chest high NE swell with some east windchop on it. Fading through the day. Wind East 10-15kts.
SUNDAY: Knee-waist high semi-choppy NE swell, bigger upcoast. WInd ESE 10-15kts.
LONG RANGE SURFCAST:
Some SE to SSE windchop may pick up after this run of waves(although the new GFS doesn't show this anymore) then watching the possibility of another low moving off the coast after that. Local wind might be an issue again.
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