UPDATED: NOVEMBER 15, 2019 — Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast
REWIND: Winds went offshore Friday, most of the good swell locally came in overnight. Was pretty small by daybreak. Upcoast however looked really fun with much more swell.
SURFCAST DISCUSSION
Friday night Low pressure forming in the Atlantic cranking a cold front though.
The low then strengthens rapidly off the Carolina coast into a 60kt storm. The fetch will grow pretty good. The euro now has the low hugging to coast too much, and the GFS now looks like a lot better set up then it did. Look for swell models to increase because they generally take the data from the GFS. It looks like there may be two areas that will generate swell. One close by, just north of the Bahamas up to Hatteras. The second is the fetch that grows northeast of Hatteras. The closer fetch's swell will arrive first, then the farther one. They will be similar angles and only a slight difference in period. This may make for some double ups at some spots. This swell will have a lot of power, and probably be pretty consistent too since it was formed so close to us. Know your limits.
Local winds right are looking to cooperate, as we don't have a big ol' high immediately pushing in behind the front/low. The trough stays in the east and another low and front will move over the state Tuesday, keeping winds offshore. This week keep conditions pretty favorable at least though mid week. I think the swell will punch all the way south, but only for Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere the swell will last longer, but now not as long as it originally looked.
By mid week, the Euro is still a lot stronger with the next low/front. If it's right, we could be looking at some refraction action building in. although this chance is lessening.
DAILY SURFCAST SPECIFICS:
SATURDAY: Pretty much flat. A small clean swell remaining upcoast. Groundswell will start to build into the Treasure Coast in the afternoon but it may not reach PBC by the end of the day. Wind NW 15-25kts.
SUNDAY: Clean chest-head high longer period groundswell filling in throughout the day, Smaller in the morning then building in the afternoon, becoming overhead+ sets and bombing at the right spot in the late afternoon. Even building all the way south late in the day. Wind NW 10-15kts all day. It'll be pretty powerful and consistent. Chilly in the morning, probably need the suit. Sweeping current on the open beach too.
MONDAY: Solid head to overhead+ north groundswell. Clean and glassy with light offshore winds, possibly all day. Upcoast will also be really good, bombing swell staying clean. Still chilly out(for us) especially in the morning but the wind will be lighter.
TUESDAY: Surf drops some, But still will be a rippable chest to maybe head high, fading some through the day. Clean and glassy in the morning with just a light offshore wind, may turn sideshore late in the day now, but it'll stay light. Upcoast will be firing in the morning, head high to overhead with a light offshore wind. Wind may come on it though in the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY: Waist high plus north groundswell. Breezy NW winds in the morning but turning NE after noon making it choppy and sloppy.
THURSDAY: Knee to maybe waist high NE windchop with a bit of leftover NE swell. Wind NE 10-15kts.
FRIDAY: Going just about flat with a light wind.
LONG RANGER SURFCAST:
Looking at some refraction action potential to start off Turkey week, and some windchop to end the week. Still up in the air though. Keep checking back for updates, I'll be updating every evening now with this swell. (normally finished around 7pm or so)
WINTER SEASON OUTLOOK: Obviously we've had a slow start. But in the shorter term... we are getting a pretty good swell with about a weeks worth of waves. It looks like it backs off for turkey week though. Then December might pull back some, then back to active pattern January through March. Overall indications are a warmer than normal winter(the past 7 or 8 winters have been that way) which is not normally good for surf, plus El nino/la nina/southern oscillation is neutral so we won't have a big effect with that. If the NAO/AO is negative for more than just a brief period of time however, we could scrape up a decent winter. If the NAS remains positive most of the winter, it'll be a below normal winter surf season.
The NAO is only forecast a couple weeks out, Track it here:
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