MIAMI — NOAA is predicting a below-average hurricane season this year, aided by forecasts of a strong El Niño suppressing tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.
The agency is predicting a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.
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NOAA is forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).
Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).
In comparison, an average hurricane season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
While ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average, El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes.
"Although El Niño's impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold," NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a statement. "That is why it's essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season."
NOAA's outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. The agency's forecast does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land.
In April, forecasters at Colorado State had a similar forecast, predicting a below-normal hurricane season with 13 named storms and six hurricanes.
Hurricane season starts June 1 and runs to Nov. 30.
