WASHINGTON, D.C. — The trend of a predicting a very active hurricane season continued Thursday when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasted an "above average" season.
NOAA — the official outlook for the federal government — is forecasting 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
"The forecast for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook," said NOAA administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad.
An average hurricane season has approximately 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
NOAA said the season is expected to have above normal activity due to near-record warm ocean temperatures, La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less winds shear.
"The big reminder here is it takes all of those to come together, all the ingredients to come up with a forecast like this," said NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. "I've seen strong storms hit warm water and weaken only because of shear, so all those factors have to come into them."
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The tropical cyclone names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are the following:
- Alberto
- Beryl
- Chris
- Debby
- Ernesto
- Francine
- Gordon
- Helene
- Issac
- Joyce
- Kirk
- Leslie
- Milton
- Nadine
- Oscar
- Patty
- Rafael
- Sara
- Tony
- Valerie
- William
Mathew Rosencrans with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center said above all, preparedness is key.
"You don't want to be in line with 500 people arguing for that last set of D-sized batteries for your flashlight. Do it now," Rosencrans said. "Let the stores replenish, then you can go back and do it again. If we all rush, it doesn't work."
In April, Colorado State University predicted an "extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season with calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
One month earlier, AccuWeather called this season's hurricane forecast "explosive," predicting as many as 20 to 25 named storms, four to seven of which could be major hurricanes.
Rosencrans said if the NOAA's outlook is 100% correct, it would not be the greatest number of storms that have ever occurred. He said the greatest number of named storms was 30 in 2020 and the most hurricanes was 15 in 2005.
