WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — We could be in for an "extremely active" hurricane season, researchers at Colorado State University said Thursday.
The university released its annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast — considered one of the top predictors of hurricane season — calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.
An average hurricane season has approximately 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
"Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions," Colorado State University said in its report.
In addition, CSU researchers said sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season.
"A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification," the university said.
Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, said his department predicts a 62% chance of a hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline and a 34% chance of one hitting the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula.
"So, no one can say months in advance when or where storms are going to strike, but what we can say is that, in general, more active seasons have more land-falling hurricanes," he said.
WPTV First Alert Weather chief meteorologist Steve Weagle said that's an extremely busy hurricane season.
"I don't remember a time where they had more storms forecast than 23," he said. "That would be busier than last year, and last year was the fourth-busiest in history."
The most significant hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was Hurricane Idalia. That storm made landfall as a Category 3 storm in Florida's Big Bend region. Idalia caused billions in damage and resulted in numerous deaths.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will run from June 1 through Nov. 30.
