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Hurricane Beryl a 'likely harbinger of a hyperactive season'; forecasters now predict 25 named storms

31% chance of U.S. East Coast being hit by at least 1 major hurricane, according to Colorado State forecasters
This image, captured by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on NOAA-21, shows Hurricane Beryl at 12:50 p.m. Atlantic Standard Time on June 30, when the eye of the storm was about 300 miles southeast of Barbados.
Posted at 1:20 PM, Jul 09, 2024

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Forecasters at Colorado State University have increased the number of named storms they expect to form this hurricane season and maintain that it will be "extremely active."

Back in April, Colorado State predicted there would be 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes this season. In an updated forecast released Tuesday, they are now calling for 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.

On average, from 1991 to 2020, the Atlantic Basin typically only sees about 14 named storms. A little over a month into hurricane season there have already been three named storms.

TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide

Read the full 44-page report below:

The report said there is a 31% chance of the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, being hit by at least one major hurricane this year. For comparison, on average, from 1880-2020, the U.S. East Coast has an average of being impacted by a major hurricane 21% of the time.

Forecasters said the Florida Peninsula is defined as anywhere south and east of Cedar Key.

The updated forecast said the U.S. Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle, currently has a 38% chance of experiencing landfall from a Category 3 storm or higher. Typically this region has a 27% chance of being hit by a major hurricane. The Florida Panhandle is defined as anywhere west and north of Cedar Key.

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Hurricane

NOAA predicts 'above average' hurricane season with 17 to 25 named storms

Matt Papaycik
10:15 AM, May 23, 2024

'HYPERACTIVE SEASON'

This new forecast comes on the heels of powerful Hurricane Beryl, which last week became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.

In Tuesday's report, forecasters called Beryl a "likely harbinger of a hyperactive season."

"We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," the new report said.

Tropical Weather July

Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain much warmer than normal, fueling tropical activity.

"Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them," the report stressed. "Thorough preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

Colorado State forecasters said they will release an updated hurricane forecast on Aug. 6.

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Jonathan Diego
4:35 PM, Jul 06, 2022
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Surfing Blog

Surf Forecast: Flat this week, Some swell upcoast this weekend.

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2024 STORM NAMES

Alberto

Beryl

Chris

Debby

Ernesto

Francine

Gordon

Helene

Isaac

Joyce

Kirk

Leslie

Milton

Nadine

Oscar

Patty

Rafael

Sara

Tony

Valerie

William

TERMS TO KNOW

TROPICAL STORM WATCH: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within the specified coastal area within 36 hours.

HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible somewhere within the specified coastal area. A hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

HURRICANE WARNING: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. A hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.