WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Meteorologists at Colorado State University announced Thursday they are now calling for a more active hurricane season than was predicted earlier this year.
The CSU forecast, which is released annually and then updated, is considered one of the top indicators of the Atlantic hurricane season. They are now anticipating an "above-average" year, which is in contrast to their forecast in April that called for a "slightly below-average" hurricane season. In June, they upgraded that prediction to a "near-normal season."
Colorado State's forecasters are now predicting 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. However, they said that "uncertainty with this outlook is larger than normal."
This year's El Niño is playing a role in how forecasters below the hurricane season will shape up.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
Updated Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for above-normal season: 18 named storms (including 4 that have formed), 9 hurricanes & 4 major hurricanes. Extremely warm tropical/subtropical Atlantic may dominate over #ElNino:https://t.co/P6RZ2qdweL pic.twitter.com/6DU3PZGTJ7
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 6, 2023
"While we continue to anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic now has record warm sea surface temperatures," the forecast said. "El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear."
Forecasters said the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. is estimated to be above average.
Coastal residents are always reminded that they should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
Colorado State bases its forecast is based on models used from 25 to 40 years of historical hurricane seasons and evaluates conditions including Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels, El Niño and other factors.
The team said they will update this year's forecast on Aug. 3.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted in May "near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year," calling for 12 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
