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'Slightly below-average' hurricane season expected, Colorado State University forecasters say

Newly released forecast predicts 13 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
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MIAMI — We could be in for a "slightly below-average" hurricane season, forecasters from Colorado State University announced Thursday.

The CSU forecast, which is released annually and is considered one of the top indicators of the Atlantic hurricane season, is predicting a total of 13 tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.

In an average season, CSU forecasters said there are typically 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Those figures are based on weather data between 1991 and 2020.

Meteorologists said an elevated El Niño pattern — meaning warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean water — is expected to hinder some Atlantic storms from developing into tropical systems.

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The CSU forecast was released just one day after severe storms hammered South Florida on Wednesday, drenching Fort Lauderdale with more than 25 inches of rain and closing Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport to flight activity until at least 5 a.m. Friday.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

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TROPICAL STORM WATCH: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.

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HURRICANE WARNING: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. A hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.