Tropical Storm Jerry is still looking quite disorganized. The storm's clouds are spread out, with the storm's main activity pushed to the south and east of its center. Recent observations show that the storm's center may be stretching out, and its central pressure is gradually rising. As a result, NHC haa set Jerry's intensity at 50mph. Although the storm is located north of the Leeward Islands, it is still producing heavy rainfall, which raises the risk of flash flooding in the region. Another aircraft is on its way to gather more information about the storm.
Currently, Jerry is moving northwest at about 15 knots, but a turn to the north is expected later tonight. This movement will take it away from the Leeward Islands and continue in that direction through the weekend, keeping Jerry’s center southeast of Bermuda by Sunday. The forecast is largely consistent among meteorological models, and little change has been made to the track predictions. Looking ahead into early next week, Jerry is expected to turn northeast but the exact timing of this shift is uncertain.
Unfortunately, Jerry has not improved in structure over the past few days due to strong northwesterly winds. Therefore, little to no strengthening is anticipated for the near future. While some models indicate that wind shear may ease slightly this weekend, forecasts suggest only modest strengthening, and the likelihood of Jerry becoming a hurricane has diminished. This prediction is still on the higher side, so there may be further adjustments needed if Jerry continues on its current course.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
On another note, a new storm named Karen has formed in the northeastern Atlantic. It's moving northeast within a larger weather system. Despite being over cooler waters, Karen is still generating some storm activity, but conditions are expected to become more challenging. In the next day or two, Karen could lose its organized structure and merge with a passing weather front, so we'll be keeping an eye on its development.
