Tropical Storm Jerry continues to churn across the open Atlantic tonight, though the system remains poorly organized and could weaken over the weekend.
As of the 11 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Jerry’s winds have increased slightly to 50 mph, but the storm’s low-level circulation remains ill-defined, especially on the northwest side.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
Scattered heavy rain is still occurring near the Virgin Islands, but the persistent rain bands that brought flooding rain to parts of the northeastern Caribbean have weakened and are moving away.
Jerry is tracking north at 13 mph and will likely continue on that path through Saturday night before turning eastward by Sunday as it interacts with the mid-latitude westerlies. Models agree that strong wind shear and cooler ocean waters should limit Jerry’s strength over the next few days.
The system is expected to transition into a post-tropical storm by Monday evening, eventually dissipating along a frontal boundary.
Farther east, a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and storms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for gradual development, and the National Hurricane Center gives the system a low (20%) chance of development over the next 7 days as it moves westward across the eastern Atlantic.
