After rapidly intensifying earlier today, Hurricane Erin is now showing signs of change.
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Erin is in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC).
While it is in the stage of an eyewall replacement cycle, Erin has lost a bit of its punch and has been downgraded to a category 3.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
This happens when a new outer eyewall forms around the existing inner eyewall. As the new eyewall takes over, the inner one weakens, which can temporarily bring the storm’s peak winds down.
In Erin’s case, winds have eased from 160 mph yesterday to about 125 mph this morning. While that’s a slight drop, Erin still remains a Category 3 hurricane.
Even though the storm wobbled west of its earlier forecast track, forecasters expect it to regain a steadier west-northwest path through the weekend.
By early next week, a dip in the jet stream over the Atlantic should pull Erin northward and eventually northeastward, keeping the storm away from Florida and the Southeast U.S. coastline.
However, Erin’s size is expected to double or even triple over the coming days. That means even if the storm stays offshore, it will generate dangerous surf, large swells, and strong rip currents along much of the U.S. East Coast, including here in Florida, by the middle of next week.
Meanwhile, heavy rain continues for parts of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands, where flooding and mudslides remain a concern. Bermuda is also being advised to closely monitor Erin’s progress next week as the storm grows in size.
For now, Florida’s main concern is at the coast. If you’re heading to the beach, use caution and be aware of rip current risks.
