Hurricane season has begun and it looks like we're off to another quick start.
The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday tagged the disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Wave Invest 91-L.
It now has a high chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the next five days.
"Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, & Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, & the Florida Keys on Friday & Saturday," the NHC said on Twitter.
There is a 70% chance of development in the next two days and 80% within the next five days.
Agatha, this year's first named storm in the eastern Pacific, formed off Mexico's southern Pacific coast Sunday and rapidly gained power and made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday. It has since dissipated across the mountains of Mexico.
The hurricane center said there's a chance the storm’s remnants could emerge over the Gulf of Mexico and reform. If it becomes a named storm in the Atlantic, it would be Alex.
8pm EDT 1 June: There is a high chance (80%🔴) of a tropical depression forming & moving northeastward across the SE Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours.— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 2, 2022
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely over portions of W Cuba & S Florida on Friday & Saturday.@NWSWPC pic.twitter.com/FSs7od99Zm
The EURO still has it moving over Florida, which would mean higher rain chances and abundant rainfall. The GFS model has shifted closer to Florida, but still with less rainfall than the EURO with most of the moisture staying south and east of the state.
Saturday's forecast will be rest on what happens with the potential tropical disturbance. For now, the forecast calls for the likelihood of showers and storms. Heavy rain could pile up and lead to flooding in spots.
The National Hurricane Center is also watching an area north of the Bahamas which has a low chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves away from the U.S.