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CSU revises hurricane forecast, doubling number of named storms for an average year

Hurricane Isaias makes landfall in Bahamas with Florida in its sights next
Posted at 12:23 PM, Aug 05, 2020
and last updated 2020-08-05 14:29:43-04

Colorado State University (CSU) has revised its seasonal hurricane forecast, doubling the number of named storms and nearly doubling the number of major hurricanes they predict most years.

CSU's forecast for 2020 includes 24 named storms. That total includes 9 named storms that have already come and gone in the Atlantic so far this year (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias).

Between 1981 and 2010, the average total of named storms was 12.1.

Their prediction of major hurricanes (category 3 and above) is 5.

Between 1981 and 2010, the average total of major hurricanes was 2.7.

Researchers cite warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic and vertical wind shear that is well below average for the above-normal probability in predicted storms.

CSU anticipates that 2020 will have an additional 10 hurricanes, 15 named storms, and 5 major hurricanes.

Researchers say the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140% of the long-period full-season average.

You can view their data here.

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Scripps National Desk
1:29 PM, Dec 17, 2018

2020 STORM NAMES

Arthur

Bertha

Cristobal

Dolly

Edouard

Fay

Gonzalo

Hanna

Isaias

Josephine

Kyle

Laura

Marco

Nana

Omar

Paulette

Rene

Sally

Teddy

Vicky

Wilfred

TERMS TO KNOW

TROPICAL STORM WATCH: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within the specified coastal area within 36 hours.

HURRICANE WATCH: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible somewhere within the specified coastal area. A hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

HURRICANE WARNING: An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. A hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.