With less than five weeks until Election Day, a campaign ad from Republican Byron Donalds claims Democrat David Jolly's hurricane insurance proposal would cost Florida families $1,000 a year in what the ad calls a "hurricane tax." An examination of the ad and the study it cites tells a more complicated story.
The Donalds ad's claims
The ad opens by asking, "How much will David Jolly's hurricane tax cost Florida?" and cites a Florida State University study to support its assertion that Jolly's plan would run Florida families $1,000 per year.
"A giant bail-out for big insurance. A giant rip-off for you," the 30-second spot says.
What Jolly is proposing
Jolly wants to create what he calls a "sovereign wealth fund" to absorb all windstorm coverage in Florida, while allowing private insurers to handle other types of policies.
When I asked him at an event in Fort Lauderdale recently to explain the concept, Jolly pushed back on the "hurricane tax" framing.
"Well, there's currently a thousand-dollar hurricane tax on the books that Byron Donalds wants to continue. My model would actually repeal it," Jolly said.
What's actually on the books
Florida does not have a specific "hurricane tax" on the books. Jolly is likely referring to the assessments that Citizens Property Insurance is required to levy on Floridians in order to remain solvent.
Jolly's campaign claims that if private insurers don't have to worry about windstorm policies, premiums would drop 60 to 70 percent. I was not able to independently verify that math.
"A state sovereign wealth fund can absorb the risk of hurricane coverage if we sufficiently capitalize it," Jolly said.
What the cited FSU study actually says
The Donalds ad cites a Florida State University study — which I obtained via a public records request. It was commissioned by the policy research arm of the Florida Legislature and released in August.
The 80-page report does not examine Jolly's specific proposal of a sovereign wealth fund. Instead, it looks into the feasibility of having Citizens Property Insurance bear all the risk for named windstorms, taking the burden off private insurers.
The report says that proposal could — under some circumstances — lower premiums. But it would ultimately redistribute the risk from Florida's most hurricane-prone areas and spread it across the state, "effectively (creating) a broader 'hurricane tax...'" by "(increasing) the likelihood and magnitude of statewide assessments."
Read the full study below:
How Jolly would fund the sovereign wealth fund
I followed up with Jolly, asking how he would get the money for the sovereign wealth fund, which he says would need at least $32 million to start.
"So let's start with the existing hurricane fund, the $12 billion in the current fee structure," Jolly said. "(And) if we require our insurance companies to actually keep their profits in state instead of shipping them out of state, you could raise several billion dollars a year doing that as well. I've also mentioned looking at a tourist development tax."
Jolly also suggested starting with partial windstorm coverage from the fund, then rolling out full coverage as it grows over time.
Donalds pushes back
Donalds says his opponent's math still doesn't add up.
"When it comes to insurance company profits, he says he wants to tax, if you take 70% of their business away from them, what profits are you taxing?" Donalds said.
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