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Area in southern Gulf of Mexico has high chance of development

Posted at 5:49 AM, May 31, 2022
and last updated 2022-05-31 23:58:30-04

MIAMI — Hurricane season starts on Wednesday and it looks like we could be off to another quick start.

The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday said an area in the southern Gulf of Mexico now has a high chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the next five days.

The NHC said the development could occur as the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

"Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, & Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, & the Florida Keys on Friday & Saturday," the NHC said on Twitter.

There is a 40% chance of development in the next two days and 70% within the next five days.

TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide

Agatha, this year's first named storm in the eastern Pacific, formed off Mexico's southern Pacific coast Sunday and rapidly gained power and made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday. It has since dissipated across the mountains of Mexico.

Because the storm's current path would carry it over the narrow waist of Mexico’s isthmus, the hurricane center said there's a chance the storm’s remnants could reemerge over the Gulf of Mexico. If it becomes a named storm in the Atlantic, it would be Alex.

A few long range forecast models predict the tropical moisture leftover from Agatha will move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and slowly reorganize.

The EURO still has it moving over Florida, which would mean higher rain chances and abundant rainfall. The GFS model has shifted closer to Florida, but still with less rainfall than the EURO with most of the moisture staying south and east of the state.

Saturday's forecast will be rest on what happens with the potential tropical disturbance. For now, the forecast calls for the likelihood of showers and storms. Heavy rain could pile up and lead to flooding in spots.