The two-month quiet spell in the tropics is over, but we still don't have a named storm.
Invest 91L has a high chance of development with an 80% chance in the next five days and 50% in the next two days.
Some dry air and wind shear could limit short-term development. However, both the GFS and Euro models support the disturbance overcoming those factors and possibly developing into a tropical depression as it passes just northwest of the Leeward Islands by the end of the week. Most models then have it turning back to sea.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
A wave coming off the coast of Africa now has a 40% chance of development over the next five days and 20% in the next two days.
The National Hurricane Center says gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days. By late this week, the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler waters and further development is not likely after that time.
It's been 58 days since Tropical Storm Colin dissipated. It's the third-longest stretch without a named storm in recorded Atlantic hurricane season history.
The longest dry streak lasted 61 days from June 18 to Aug. 18 in 1999. After the dry spell, the 1999 hurricane season had five Category 4 storms and the drenching Category 2 Irene that passed over Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in mid-October.
In 2002, there was a 59-day streak that went from June 2 to July 31. After that stretch, there were seven tropical storms and four hurricanes.
The next named storm would be named Danielle.
