WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — At NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook news conference Thursday, the agency said they predict this year's hurricane season to be more active than average.
The forecast released Thursday morning calls for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 of which are predicted to become hurricanes and 3-5 of those to become a Category 3 or higher.
The average Atlantic Hurricane Season, based on the last 30 years, has 14 named storms, 7 of which are hurricanes, and 3 of those major hurricanes.
NOAA also gave a 60% chance for an above normal season and only 10% chance for the season to be below normal.
Forecasters with NOAA site a number of factors for the above normal forecast including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon.
All of these elements tend to favor tropical formation. The higher ocean heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption. Forecasters also mention the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, which is a primary starting point for tropical waves that produce some of the strongest and long-lived storms in the Atlantic.
Forecasters from Colorado State University are also forecasting an above average season with 17 named storms.
Compared to other hurricane season outlooks, NOAA's forecast gives a probable range.
While these outlooks give us an idea of how much tropical activity a season will have, it does not give a landfall prediction.
The Atlantic Hurricane season starts on June 1st with the normal highest activity peaking in mid-September. The first tropical storm that forms will be named Andrea.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
