WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — NOAA forecasters have issued their early August hurricane season update. While they have lowered the numbers some, it is still expected to be an above average season.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
The number of named storms is adjusted down by 1, to 13-18 (including the four we already had), hurricanes are tweaked down by one to 5-9, and major hurricanes also lowered by one to 2-5. The probability of an above normal season has also dropped to 50% —down from 60% in May.
These numbers are still above the average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Renowned Colorado State University forecasters have also adjusted their forecast down in July, citing high levels of shear in the Caribbean .
"Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June– July are associated with less active hurricane seasons," university forecasters said.
However, we still have above normal water temps, an active west African monsoon (tropical waves) and no El Niño that tip the scales to a more active season.
It is still wise to prepare for hurricane season regardless of the numbers, because it only takes one to hit and make it an impactful year for us.
Hurricane season normally ramps up in August, peaks Sept. 10, and stays active through mid-October, before winding down with our first cold fronts in November.
