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When will gas prices start to go down?

'It's going to take time, logistically,' said Florida Atlantic University political science professor says
Gas prices are displayed at a gas station in Inglewood, Calif., Thursday, March 10, 2022.
Posted at 4:57 PM, Mar 11, 2022
and last updated 2022-03-11 18:18:30-05

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Gas prices have been rising dramatically the last few weeks, frustrating drivers every time they fuel up.

So, when can drivers expect to see some relief from the record prices? Experts said our fuel frustration could be with us for months.

When gas prices hit $4 per gallon in 2008, they fell to $2.17 just three months later.  

However, the world is a very different place now. 

With an unpredictable war occurring in Ukraine, that means it's hard to predict when gas prices will return to some kind of normalcy.

WATCH: University of Miami Herbert Business School dean shares thoughts on gas prices

Facebook Q&A: When will gas prices start to go down?

"As long as there's uncertainty with respect to peace in the Ukraine, then there is going to be a continuation of tough measures against Russia," said John Quelch, dean of the University of Miami Herbert Business School.

In recent days, Quelch feared the war and the worldwide gas shortage could drive our prices up to $5 a gallon or more.  

But he said a commitment to step up oil production here in the U.S. might ease fuel frustration.  

"We have the option of higher price points of reactivating oil wells and oil fields that are not necessarily profitable at $3 a gallon, but can be profitable at $4 or$5 a gallon at the pump," Quelch said.

Experts said it takes three to four months for the oil production increase could begin the process of driving down prices below the $4 a gallon mark.

Robert Rabil, Florida Atlantic University political science professor
Robert Rabil explains how the supply of oil impacts the price of gas.

Oil industry experts said it takes about three to four months for oil-rich nations in the Middle East to get extra gas to local pumps. And those nations have not committed to increasing enough output to lower the price we pay.  

"It's going to take time, logistically," said Florida Atlantic University political science professor Robert Rabil. "If OPEC increases more, it really can stabilize oil markets."

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According to Rabil, gas prices could start falling close to pre-surge levels when the extra oil that the U.S. and allies hope to start producing can make it to the pumps.

Rabil, who specializes in international relations, said the world needs more than extra oil to drive prices down. It needs some semblance of peace.

"It's sometimes not only from where we get the oil here and there. It's mainly the disruption that could happen from a war," Rabil said.

In addition to avoiding disruptions from war, a price drop would depend on getting more gas to the world markets.

"They depend heavily on what the attitudes are of the principal oil-producing countries, other than the U.S. and Canada, when it comes to additional production," said John Quelch, dean of the University of Miami Herbert Business School.

"I hope by Labor Day, things will be fine," Rabil said. "Still Russia could disrupt the flow of energy in the world, and this might increase oil prices."  

The U.S. and Europe will try to keep the flow of energy open in an effort to lower prices and even hold off the possibility of an economic recession.  

So, will $4 a gallon be a reality through the summer and fall? 

"Let me just say, as long as you see Ukraine at the top of the news every day on your television, it's likely that [high gas prices] will continue," Quelch said.  

Yardeni Research finds that if gas prices stay above $4 a gallon for the rest of 2022, it will cost the average family $2,000.