How did Trump's conviction influence swing state voters?

FAU polled voters in battleground states hours after jury found former president guilty on 34 felony counts
Trump Hush Money Photo Gallery
Posted at 9:35 PM, Jun 04, 2024

BOCA RATON, Fla. — The race to the White House is tightening in three key battleground states, according to a new poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research.

In the hours following former president Donald Trump's conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records Thursday, FAU political science professor Kevin Wagner told WPTV his team would begin polling the following morning to gauge voter opinions on the verdict in three states that could play a role in deciding the election.

Among Michigan voters who said they were likely to cast a ballot, President Joe Biden edged out a lead with 47% over Trump's 46%.

Trump topped Biden by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, where 47% of likely voters said they'd choose the former president over the incumbent.

In Wisconsin, 41% of likely voters said they'd vote for Trump, while 40% said they'd pick Biden.

Joe St. George and Kate Monroe

The Race Weekend

Implications of Trump’s hush money verdict, the Latino vote, Florida education

Scripps News Staff
11:30 AM, Jun 01, 2024

Wagner said all of these results are within the polling margin of error. How Trump's conviction will play among the small group of undecided voters could be critical in shaping the outcome of the election.

"There's two questions that we don't know the answer to which is ultimately how many voters will be moved by this? And will that be enough voters to affect the outcome in some of these close states? And I think there is some reason to believe that it could be yes to both of those things," Wagner said. "It could be large enough, and it could affect the outcome of some of those states. But I think it's just too far away, and not definitive enough to really make a projection at this time."

Click here to see the full poll results.