Colorado State University has released their prediction for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and it calls for a near average season. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team are predicting a total of 12 more named storms, 5 more hurricanes(we already had hurricane Alex in January near the Azores), and 2 major hurricanes.
Conflicting Signals
The CSU team states two main factors, each conflicted with one another.
1. A weakening El Niño is forecast to flip to a La Niña. That would lower the shear that prevented any storms from making it through the Caribbean last year, and in turn increase the number of storms possible.
However...
2. The Atlantic sea surface temperature profile is an odd one right now. It's slightly cooler than normal off the coast of Africa, (the birthplace of a lot of storms) and that stretches half way across the Atlantic right in the main development region for tropical storms. There are warmer than normal water temps to the north, off the coast of the mid-Atlantic up to Canada, then much cooler water temps way up in the north Atlantic. Without going into complex details, this set up is almost completely opposite of what one would look at for a very active season.
Other weather outlets have released similar outlooks. AccuWeather has come out with 14 named storms, and Tropical Storm Risks, Inc is predicting 12 named storms. NOAA will release their official forecast in May.
As with any year, it only takes one to hit us to be an active season...and we are long overdue. So it's best to always be prepared.
