TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Is a blue wave building in Florida — or is the state’s Republican turnout machine taking over again?
Less than a week before Florida’s primary, both parties insist the momentum is on their side. The latest voting numbers give each of them something to point to.
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As of 3:30 p.m. Wednesday, more than 1.3 million Floridians had already voted, according to Fresh Take Florida’s statewide turnout tracker, which uses Florida Division of Elections data. Republicans accounted for 585,423 ballots, compared with 545,309 Democrats — giving the GOP a statewide advantage of 40,114 votes. Another 177,542 ballots came from voters outside the two major parties.
“This does feel different for multiple reasons,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said in a recent interview. “We're putting in the work. We've got incredible candidates that are running, and the climate of the moment is really giving Democrats an opportunity to be heard where they may not have been so before.”
Democrats have been arguing for weeks that the political environment is shifting. They point to recent wins in Republican-leaning districts, frustration with the Republican administration in Washington and what remains a sizable Democratic advantage in vote-by-mail.
“The Republican supermajority in this Legislature is breakable, and we are going to break it this cycle,” Fried said.
Democrats still hold the mail-ballot advantage. As of Wednesday afternoon, 409,358 Democrats had voted by mail, compared with 356,500 Republicans — a Democratic lead of 52,858 ballots.
But Republicans have overwhelmed that advantage at early-voting sites.
Fresh Take shows 228,923 Republicans have voted early in person, compared with 135,951 Democrats — a GOP advantage of 92,972 votes. That surge is what pushed Republicans ahead statewide.
“Now we’ve taken the vote lead, and we aren’t going to look back,” Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power said. “We’re going to have a very big vote lead when we come to Election Day.”
Power argues the numbers show the GOP turnout operation kicking into gear. He also dismissed concerns that a bruising Republican primary season could make it harder for the party to unite ahead of November.
“I 100% think we’re going to get united,” Power said. “I think we’re going to turn out, and we’re going to win big.”
But the raw-vote lead does not tell the entire story.
Republicans enter this election with a considerably larger registration advantage. Fresh Take lists 5.6 million registered Republicans and 4.06 million Democrats. It’s a difference of roughly 1.54 million voters.
When turnout is measured against the size of each party, Democrats are participating at a noticeably higher rate.
So far, 13.43% of registered Democrats have voted, compared with 10.45% of registered Republicans. That’s almost a three-percentage-point Democratic advantage.
The divide becomes even clearer when looking at how the parties are voting.
About 10.08% of registered Democrats have already voted by mail, compared with 6.37% of Republicans. Republicans have the edge in early in-person participation, 4.09% to 3.35%.
That leaves both parties with a legitimate, but different, argument about momentum.
Republicans can point to the scoreboard: they have erased a Democratic mail advantage and built a 40,000-vote overall lead.
Democrats can point to efficiency: despite having roughly 1.5 million fewer registered voters, a significantly larger percentage of their party has already cast a ballot.
Political analyst Susan MacManus said enthusiasm only matters if campaigns can ultimately turn it into votes.
“Every poll in the world can show that your candidate’s closing the gap — but if you don’t have a way to get supporters to actually go vote, then you can’t win elections,” MacManus said.
For Democrats, the challenge is proving that dissatisfaction over affordability and the party in power can translate into enough turnout to overcome Florida’s Republican registration advantage.
For Republicans, it is showing that their much larger voter pool and established turnout operation can once again dominate when all the ballots are counted.
For now, Republicans own the raw-vote lead. Democrats own the turnout-rate advantage.
The final test comes Tuesday.
Florida’s primary Election Day is Aug. 18, with the state’s mandatory early-voting period continuing through Saturday, Aug. 15.
