TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — National Democrats are spending to defend U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor as seven Florida congressional races shift toward their party in new ratings, renewing debate over whether Republicans’ mid-decade redraw will deliver its intended gains.
The map targeted as many as four additional Republican seats. Democrats have called it a potential “dummymander” — a partisan redraw that backfires on the party that designed it.
WATCH: Florida GOP redraw faces new questions as Democrats defend Castor and ratings shift
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is paying for ads in Castor’s Tampa-area 14th District as part of a nearly $8 million nationwide advertising buy across 26 districts this week. The spending puts national party resources behind an incumbent Republicans targeted with the new boundaries.
Inside Elections moved Castor’s race to a toss-up on Sept. 17, following an earlier shift from lean Republican to tilt Republican. The forecaster rated the district solid Democratic before the redraw, underscoring how much more competitive her reelection contest has become.
The latest changes extend beyond Tampa. In its Sept. 22 Power Rankings, Fox News shifted seven Florida congressional races toward Democrats. Jared Moskowitz’s race in the 25th District moved from toss-up to lean Democratic, while Republican María Elvira Salazar’s race in the 27th moved from likely Republican to lean Republican.
Fox attributed the changes largely to national polling favoring Democrats and movement toward the party among Hispanic voters.
During the redistricting debate in April, political consultant Michael Worley warned that Republican advantages on paper would not necessarily translate into November victories.
“These districts, while they might look Republican on paper, could very well be a key swing vote come November and deliver a Democratic majority back to the House,” Worley said in an April 27 interview.
Worley, CEO of MDW Communications, pointed to uncertainty surrounding voters who had backed Republicans in previous elections.
“Well, they’re making a big bet that non-Cuban Hispanics are going to continue voting for Republicans. And that is not a given,” he said.
Analysts also warned during the April debate that moving Democratic and independent voters into surrounding Republican districts could make some existing GOP seats more competitive.
Gov. Ron DeSantis defended the redraw in August, calling it a “good map,” while acknowledging a different political environment from the one Republicans faced in 2022.
“This year they’re winnable, but I think it’s going to require some effort,” DeSantis said of the four targeted seats.
The ratings changes do not establish that redistricting caused the movement, and seven shifts toward Democrats do not mean seven seats will change parties. Falling short of four Republican pickups would not, by itself, demonstrate that the map cost the GOP seats.
In a July 13 interview, political scientist Susan MacManus emphasized that Democrats would have to turn enthusiasm into votes.
“Turnout is a huge issue. That’s the bottom line. That’s how you win elections,” MacManus said.
For now, “dummymander” remains a political argument. Voters will decide the races Nov. 3.
