TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — With Florida’s Aug. 18 primary approaching, the race for governor is increasingly centered on two frontrunners, Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly. That’s as their opponents scramble for a late breakthrough.
Donalds continues to hold a commanding advantage in Republican polling and fundraising, while Jolly has consolidated support in the Democratic contest. But the closing weeks are bringing new attacks, a ballot challenge and questions about the candidates’ vulnerabilities heading toward November.
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Collins calls GOP primary a two-person race
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins used a Thursday campaign call to position himself as the strongest Republican alternative to Donalds, despite trailing the congressman in polling, money and endorsements.
Collins defended his support for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and law enforcement, rejected claims of tension between his campaign and staff inside the governor’s office and urged former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner to leave the race. He also argued Donalds could struggle in a general election.
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GOP governor primary enters critical stretch with Donalds still ahead
“This is a two-person race in the primary,” Collins said. “It is between Byron Donalds and myself, and we absolutely have a clear path to do this.”
The available polling shows Collins has considerable ground to make up. A Tyson Group survey released this week placed Donalds at 48%, followed by Collins at 9%, businessman James Fishback at 8% and Renner at 4%. About 26% of respondents remained undecided.
Donalds also holds a major financial advantage, with his campaign announcing more than $90 million raised across his campaign operation. Recent reports placed Collins’ available resources at a fraction of that amount.
Collins has not received an endorsement from Gov. Ron DeSantis, who appointed him lieutenant governor in August 2025. President Donald Trump has endorsed Donalds, while DeSantis has remained publicly neutral in the primary.
Fishback faces attack ad and ballot challenge
Fishback is facing pressure on two fronts.
The Front Line, a Republican group aligned with U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, announced a $400,000 campaign targeting Fishback over statements the group characterizes as antisemitic. The artificial intelligence-generated ad depicts Fishback as a talking fish making racist comments.
Fishback denies being antisemitic and says the spending shows Republican establishment figures are concerned about his campaign.
His eligibility to remain in the race is also headed to court. Collins is challenging Fishback’s candidacy, alleging Fishback lived and voted in Washington, D.C., and does not meet Florida’s seven-year residency requirement for governors.
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Court battle over Fishback candidacy heats up before primary
A two-day hearing is scheduled to begin July 21 in Tallahassee. Fishback says he was born and raised in Florida, has lived in the state throughout his life and purchased a Washington condo only to visit his parents.
Because ballots have already been printed, the judge said a ruling against Fishback would likely involve directing election officials not to count votes cast for him rather than removing his name from ballots.
Jolly responds to ties with indicted businessman
On the Democratic side, Jolly moved this week to address a potential general-election vulnerability: his past business and political relationship with Clearwater financier Leo Govoni.
Federal prosecutors allege Govoni and accountant John Witeck stole more than $100 million from a nonprofit that managed trust funds for people with disabilities and other special needs. The indictment alleges the scheme operated from 2009 through 2025 and involved fraudulent account statements and transfers through Govoni-controlled companies. Govoni and Witeck have been charged; Jolly is not a defendant in the case.
Jolly previously worked as a vice president at Boston Finance Group, a Govoni-controlled company, before entering Congress. Govoni also supported Jolly’s past political campaigns and served as a finance co-chairman during Jolly’s unsuccessful 2016 U.S. Senate campaign.
Donalds supporters have circulated opposition research emphasizing those connections — that Jolly and his wife worked for Govoni-linked companies, Govoni raised money for Jolly’s campaigns, and Jolly later employed Govoni’s son in Congress.
In a campaign video, Jolly said he had no knowledge of the alleged theft and welcomed scrutiny of his record.
“Unlike too many politicians today who hide behind lawyers or refuse to answer questions, I’m an open book,” Jolly said. “Because when you’ve done nothing wrong, you have nothing to hide.”
General-election polling comes with caveats
Jolly has also pointed to a June Change Research survey commissioned by Freedom Project USA, a group aligned with Democrats, that showed him ahead of Donalds.
The poll found Jolly leading 47% to 42% among registered voters and 49% to 43% among likely voters. However, respondents were shown prepared descriptions of both candidates before being asked whom they supported, making the results less directly comparable to a standard, unprompted ballot test. The survey reported a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
Other polling has shown Donalds ahead of Jolly, and an average compiled earlier this summer placed Donalds narrowly in front. That suggests the general election could be competitive but provides no clear evidence that Florida’s broader Republican advantage has disappeared.
Florida’s voter-registration deadline is July 20. Early voting must be offered from Aug. 8 through Aug. 15, with the primary set for Aug. 18. Unless the race changes sharply in its closing weeks, Donalds and Jolly remain positioned for a November matchup.
