With word that there is a second case of locally acquired Zika in Palm Beach County, the question is: how long will it last?
A group of scientists from around the world, brought together by a researcher at the University of Florida, predict the outbreak will not last as long as many people fear. What these scientists are saying is very different from what we've been hearing. They believe the Zika Virus will be over and done with by November or December as the temperature dips and the number of cases will remain small and limited to Florida.
Here's our interview with Ira Longini, a professor of Biostatistics at the University of Florida:
Q: How can you be certain that the Zika virus will be over by November December ---this winter when most everyone is saying this is an outbreak that could become a two year outbreak epidemic?
A: "We know we cant have sustained transmission during the cooler months of the year when mosquito densities and the incubation for virus its too long and the densities get too small to sustain any transmission," he said.
Q: What's the reason we would see small clusters?
A: "The primary reason is air-conditioning and screening- means people are not being bitten by mosquitos in their households- an important component of transmission."
The study predicts Florida will continue to be at the heart of the Zika outbreak with 395 cases by September 15.
The team also predicts much smaller clusters in other southern states. Through calculations, Longini estimates a median of 8 women who would have been exposed to the virus by September 15 who would give birth to babies.
"The big takeaway is that we are not going to have massive epidemic in Florida," said Longini. "We will have a few hundred infections at most."
It's important to point out the authors of the study say these numbers are subject to change and are just preliminary. They plan to pinpoint specific parts of Florida to get exact projections in exact areas.
