Falling oil prices are pushing stocks near record highs, but drivers shouldn't expect significant relief at the gas pump just yet.
The average fuel price in the U.S. is hovering around $4.47 per gallon, down from about $4.50 two weeks ago. Experts say the decline will be slow, as the gas Americans buy today is refined from crude oil purchased weeks ago at a more expensive price. Even though oil prices have fallen to under $90 per barrel, that effect won't be felt for at least a few weeks.
Investors are watching energy markets closely as crude oil prices drop amid the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
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The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is holding, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The International Energy Agency says 20 million barrels of crude oil were shipped through the strait in 2025, making up about 25% of the world's seaborne oil.
Reuters has reported that Iranian state television says, per a framework deal with the U.S., Iran will restore commercial traffic within a month to pre-war levels and will manage ship traffic through the strait.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio says it is critical that the strait be reopened soon.
"What's happening there is unlawful," Rubio said. "It's illegal. It's unsustainable for the world. It's unacceptable. The straits need to be open, unimpeded, without tolls, and obviously that needs to happen immediately as soon as anything is agreed."
If the ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz opens, more oil supply will become available — potentially even a surplus later this year that could trigger much lower gas prices.
