TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — A state House race in Palm Beach County is drawing national attention tonight as a test of political momentum in Florida. District 87, which includes Mar-a-Lago, features a high-stakes showdown between Republican Jon Maples and Democrat Emily Gregory.
The race has attracted heavy spending and outside attention ahead of the midterm elections. President Donald Trump weighed in Monday, urging supporters on social media to turn out and calling Maples a candidate who will "never let you down." Allies, including Congressman Byron Donalds, also pushed voters to the polls in the final hours.
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Republicans express confidence heading into Election Day, pointing to a statewide voter registration advantage of around 1.5 million voters. District 87 favored Trump by about nine points in 2024.
Florida GOP Chair Evan Power said the party’s infrastructure is designed for races like this.
"Our voters are going to turn out, and we're going to win elections because of that," Power said.
"The RPOF and the Florida GOP has built infrastructure that's there for every election, and we're having success because of that," Power said.
Democrats see an opening, pointing to recent off-year elections in 2025 where Democratic candidates overperformed expectations. They argue frustration over rising costs could resonate with voters.
Gregory, a small business owner, said affordability issues dominate conversations with voters.
"I think 30 years of Republican rule has not resulted in solutions," Gregory said.
"You know, the last thing that Floridians that were already struggling needed was $4 gas," Gregory said.
"So, they are just not being served, and they are saying that every single day to me," Gregory said.
Political observers say the contrast between Republican structural advantages and Democratic hopes for momentum makes the race closely watched. Dr. Susan MacManus, a USF professor emerita, said a Democratic win would not shift the balance of power in the state, but the impact would be symbolic.
"If there’s going to be a seat that’s flipped in Florida, it will be this one," MacManus said.
"It would be a monumental infusion of energy and momentum for Democrats in Florida, for races up and down the ballot," MacManus said.
The race may ultimately come down to turnout among no-party affiliated voters, who make up roughly a quarter of Florida’s electorate and have shown signs of leaning Democratic in recent elections.
The victor will quickly launch a reelection campaign ahead of November and could soon weigh in on major issues in Tallahassee, including the state budget, redistricting, and potential property tax cuts expected in upcoming special sessions. Polls close at 7 p.m.
