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Does someone at Thanksgiving dinner have COVID? Map calculates risk

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Posted at 11:21 AM, Nov 16, 2020
and last updated 2020-11-16 13:39:47-05

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Will one of your guests bring an invisible plus one to Thanksgiving? An interactive map breaks it down by county and guest count.

The map developed by Georgia Tech researchers allows you to zoom in on your area, choose the number of people you think will be there and you'll learn the odds of at least one COVID-19 positive person being there.

The map takes into account ascertainment bias which assumes there are five times more cases than are being reported. They calculated this based on seroprevalence data.

You can find the map here.

The Pew Research Center says that 62% of Americans say they will be spending Thanksgiving with 10 or more relatives in attendance for the festive meal. More than a quarter (27%) expect to be enjoying turkey and pumpkin pie with 20 or more family members.

So how does it look for our local counties? We complied the list below, but know that risks vary depending on how far your guests have to travel, where they live and more.

In Palm Beach County, if you have 10 people over, there's a 12% risk of infection. If you invite 25 people, that number goes up to 27% of infection.

In Indian River County, if you have 10 people over, there's a 11% risk of infection. If you invite 25 people, that number goes up to 25% of infection.

In Okeechobee County, if you have 10 people over, there's a 9% risk of infection. If you invite 25 people, that number goes up to 21% of infection.

In Martin County, if you have 10 people over, there's a 6% risk of infection. If you invite 25 people, that number goes up to 15% of infection.

In St. Lucie County, if you have 10 people over, there's a 7% risk of infection. If you invite 25 people, that number goes up to 16% of infection.