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Don't count on a lot of Atlantic Hurricanes - here's why

Posted at 11:21 AM, Aug 07, 2015
and last updated 2015-08-07 11:21:08-04

The National Hurricane Center updated their Atlantic hurricane outlook for the season, and it's looking especially quiet.

Forecasters are now giving a below average season a 90 percent chance, the highest confidence level since these forecasts began in 1998.

Reasons for the high confidence in such low activity are the strengthening El Niño, which causes strong wind shear that tears hurricanes apart and cooler than average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic.

Despite these factors, the Atlantic did produce three tropical storms early on - Ana, Bill, and Claudette.

The NHC expects we'll see three to seven more named storms and only a fraction of those may become hurricanes.

This, however, isn't a reason to rest easy.

August and September are typically peak hurricane season, so there's still plenty of time for a hurricane to form. After all, Hurricane Andrew in 1992 formed during a down year, and it turned out to be the costliest hurricane of its time.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific Ocean, there have been 11 named storms, five of which became hurricanes.