Palm Beach Surf Forecast, Updated local surf forecast for SE Florida

Updated: October 29, 2014 - Detailed Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast:

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Rewind:  Surf built late Saturday, waist to chest at the right spot,  and a little waist high clean swell popped up for the dawn patrollers Sunday. Otherwise, Small windchop ensued to start the work week.


Flat for now but a cold front on the way for Friday with a reinforcing shot on Saturday. Good blast of NW winds in the nook is a classic set-up for refraction swell. Timing right now looks to be mostly overnight, BUT we should be able to catch some action late Saturday and early Sunday before the wind destroys it. It's a tight window. The timing on the swell, and the wind turning could change. Stay tuned.




SATURDAY:  Flat in the morning with hard offshore winds. Building swell in the afternoon, especially right before sunset. Wind NW 20-20kts.

SUNDAY: Moderate offshore winds in the morning with chest high+ clean refraction swell. Wind will turn onshore around 11am, sooner north, later south.  This one could make it down to SOBE and it'll stay cleaner there longer. For PBC Wind cranks NE 20kts through the rest of the day and blows it out. 

MONDAY: Hard onshore wind plus groundswell producing big gnarly choppy wave with fast drift.  Try to duck behind a jetty or pier.  Smaller in the morning but solid groundswell from the low that was off hatteras will fill in through the day building the surf to overhead to 1'overhead+. Wind ENE 20-25kts will destroy it though down here and put a fast south drift on it. Less wind upcoast though, possibly going light north of the cape closer to the high so that might be the call.

TUESDAY: Wind turns more east but stays at a pretty good clip. Wind East 20+kts. Solid groundswell from the low peaks 1-2' overhead+ with a 3-5 foot windchop mixed in with it. Find a protected spot.  Might not be as drifty with a more east wind but the swell will be pushing everything south.  Wind and swell will be dropping through the day. Wind lighter but turning ESE upcoast.

WEDNESDAY: Wind drops some and so does the surf.  Some cleaner leftovers upcoast, Getting crosschopped down here with an ESE wind 10-15kts. Swell fading through the day.

THURSDAY:  Wind goes calm to light offshore and whatever's left of the surf cleans up. Looking good upcoast. Probably going flat down here. but not for long...

Long Range Surfcast: There's a nearly identical set-up taking place next weekend, minus the low moving off the coast. So that means another refraction swell possible Saturday/Sunday! Followed by another big blow of windchop through at least mid week. Like I said, November looks like a lot of windchop! Gonna rename it to BLOW-VEMBER! LOL But at least there will be a few days of clean-up speckled in there.


The winter surf season:

A weak to moderate el nino, possibly a negative AO/NAO, along with some other factors I feel are going to lead us into a good winter for surf. Here's my preliminary forecast.


November-December: November or BLOW-vember will have a lot of windchop. about once a week with a little in between.  December will slow down with consistency, but bring some bouts of quality swells. 
January-February: Turning colder, with opportunities for solid groundswells/ refraction swells. 
We'll really have to keep an eye on the NAO/AO all winter since that's the strongest driver in how much cold air gets down into Florida and if the lows that push them down will go out to sea or not.

Early look at the spring looks good for surf too!


For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman




NAO:  (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)


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James Wieland
Surf Forecaster
News Channel 5
West Palm Beach/
Treasure Coast

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