Palm Beach Surf Forecast, Updated local surf forecast for SE Florida

Updated: October 9, 2015 - Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast.

REWIND:  This has been a historic run of swell for south Florida!  Many people can't remember a time where we've had a solid swell for this long, with good local winds just about the whole time, and prefect angle to make it lined up every day.  I think we're somewhere in the 17 days sraight of waves for at least the treasure coast!  So many photos from all the days.  Some days bigger than others but all were very fun!!


Joaquin started off this run of swell, then combined with a frontal system, strong high pressure in Canada, and another low forming off the Georgia coast all came together at the right time to bring a perfect swell every day for more than two weeks!


Weak pressure gradient will continue over Florida the next day as a weak area of low pressure is spinning off central Florida/Treasure Coast.  The low will drift and dissipate as another low moves through the carolinas then pushes offshore.  It will drag a weak front through the state early Sunday. New models runs aren't giving us a good fetch from this so it looks like our run of swell will come to an end for a few days or so.


FRIDAY:  Swell fades more, waist to chest in the morning and clean with a SSW wind 10kts. Turning SSE in the afternoon putting a little cross-bump on it.  Still pretty fun at the lower tide though central PBC northward.  Sebastian north will have onshores and choppy conditions.  High 7am, Low 1pm, high 730pm.

SATURDAY: Lingering knee-waist high wave, especially at low tide for Central/Northern PBC.  Waist to chest treasure coast.  Probably will stay clean all day with offshore winds picking up.  Swell fading through the day.

SUNDAY:  Knee high or less PBC. Knee-waist upcoast.  Clean with offshores in the morning turning onshore NNE 10kts in the afternoon.

MONDAY: Possibly a new small NNE swell knee high or so filling in.


Things quieting down some. Maybe some windchop kicking in on Friday.  We've been spoiled so I don't know what we'll think of that. LOL Stay tuned!



El nino is a strong el nino event at the moment. 


Good news is the winter should be above average for surf.   The winter season will see a lot of southern track storms, Cool and wet for Florida which means frequent storms rolling by, and frequent chances for swell.  However, the NAO will still be the key factor.  If it doesn't go negative this winter, that won't allow the full potential of the el nino surf season to be realized here.  Having a negative NAO through the winter means all those big storms rolling through the south and east will move offshore, instead of just hugging the coast.  This of course will allow for good groundswell generation through the winter.  The past couple winters had mainly a positive NAO. Although the NAO can't really be predicted more than two weeks out, I've heard talks about comparing previous years like this year and having a negative AO and NAO.  And so far, the NAO has been consistently negative.  So we have that going for us.

With the jet far south, this will also keep winter storms moving quickly.  So we may see raging windchop one day, with a nice clean-up the next, then another one one the way.  In other words, consistency and a little bit of everything. Windchop, groundswell, refraction swells....We will see a lot of it all mixed in which will make it pretty consistent.

In general, it looks like winter cold will start slow, but waves will kick in late September/October....then really kick into gear January-March with well below normal temps and above normal rainfall expected for the southeast. Also el nino winters see more tornado activity in Florida January-April.

After the winter, waves might continue into the summer.... I've researched the past 5 or so el nino years and found the Summer after the el nino is very active in the tropics. Good for wave, bad for getting hit.

So all in all the extended forecast looks real good for surf this season!!


For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman




NAO:  (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)


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James Wieland
Surf Forecaster
News Channel 5
West Palm Beach/
Treasure Coast


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