Palm Beach Surf Forecast, Updated local surf forecast for SE Florida

Updated: August 28, 2014 - Detailed Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast:

Rewind: Finally some surf 'round heeere!  Yew!  Solid swell filled in with not too much wind on it made for some real fun conditions.  Head high, some spots overhead in north county.  Here's a great shot from Jeff Biege at the Juno Pier:


 

LAST UPDATE UNTIL SEPT 3RD. I'M OFF FOR A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ON THE MAPS:  Hurricane Cristobal is now racing northeast.  Swell generation is coming to an end and the last of the swell should fill in Thursday and Friday.

Thursday will still have plenty of swell and it will be clean as the wind will drop to calm overnight and the ocean will have plenty of time to settle down and clean up. Surf will drop a bit  but still be fun in the chest high range, with north county northward still seeing head high sets.

Some souheast fetch will develop south of the Bahamas and north of Cuba from a tropical wave moving through the Caribbean.  this could send a small southeast windswell our way for Friday and the first part of the holiday weekend.

THE LOWDOWN:

THURSDAY28:  Wind goes calm to light offshore in the morning.  Swell drops but still a solid chest high with north county breaks northward still catching head high or so. Clean to even glassy conditions early. Onshore seabreeze putting some texture on it in the afternoon but shouldn't be too bad. High tide10:30, Low 4:30pm

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:  Still NE swell upcoast waist-chest high and clean in the morning, south florida drops to knee-waist high with some SE windswell mixing in.  Southcounty southward may be picking up only the Southeast bump Knee high, maybe waist high if it hits just right.

SUNDAY-MONDAY:  Small SE windswell for the groms with southeast wind 10-15mph.

 

Long Range Surfcast:

A tropical wave will move through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico where it may have a chance to develop there before moving into Mexico.

 GFS keeps wanting to spin a storm up right off the coast of Africa next week. It turns it into a pretty powerful hurricane but re-curves very early.  Euro wants none of it.  There are also a few more strong waves that will come of the coast ready for action.  We are approaching the peak of Hurricane season so this is expected.

Climatologically says we should get more active now anyway, so we have that on our side.  With that increase in activity climatologically going through mid September.  Right now the MJO is in phase 1 which is our area, and  it's going to move back toward Africa by mid-late September which will keep the tropics hot until then. Which is right on with climatology. 

 

 

Still waiting for el NINO to kick in.  It's VERY close. I think that's going to happen officially by September, October at the latest and will be a weak to moderate el nino.

This, along with some other factors I feel are going to lead into a good winter for surf. I'll give a winter surf outlook soon but here's my preliminary forecast.

PRELIMINARY WINTER SURF OUTLOOK

November-December: Slow start to the winter with lots of windchop, not a lot of groundswell, and mild to warm temps.
January-February: Turning very cold,(maybe like 09-10) with many opportunities for solid groundswells and refraction swells galore.  Hopefully you bought that toasty wetsuit because you'll be using it a lot.

It still is going to come down to the NAO being negative or not, but at least we are going to have other factors in our favor for a better swell season.

 

  *NOTE:  Also, I've researched the past 5 el ninos and made a startling discovery.... 4 out of 5 hurricane seasons AFTER the el nino years were off the charts with activity.  20+ storms form. So hang in there, we could be looking at a prolonged uptick in wave potential for the next year!....We shall see.

For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman

 

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NAO:  (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)

 

Check my Twitter feed below for up to the minute info :

and don't forget to LIKE  SURFIN WEATHERMAN on Facebook!

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Watch the new "The Impact Zone"  which features all the latest surf photos and video from the last swell, interviews with local people, and a detailed surf forecast for the upcoming week.  It'll be all interactive where you can chime in and make comments or ask questions.  Check it out live Sunday nights at a new time, 8pm!!!!

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If you have any pictures or video you want everyone to see, upload them to our surfing section of the YOUREPORT page or post on the Surfin Weatherman Facebook Page.

You can also stay up to date by following me on TWITTER ( SurfnWeatherman) and Facebook ( Wavecaster Wieland)

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James Wieland
Meteorologist/
Surf Forecaster
WPTV HD /
News Channel 5
West Palm Beach/
Treasure Coast
http://wptv.com/surfing
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