Palm Beach Surf Forecast, Updated local surf forecast for SE Florida

Updated: October 24, 2014 - Detailed Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast:
Rewind:  Chunky, dumpy windchop the past couple days. Drift wasn't too bad. Lots of seaweed and jellies still hanging around.

ON THE MAPS:  

Tropical Depression #9 fizzled out but the remnants are still down there brewing. Something to keep an eye on. Non-tropical low pressure moving through the Bahamas and out to sea will turn winds a little more north Saturday, but also wind them down over the weekend. The sun finally comes back out and dry weather sticks around through at least mid-week.

 

THE LOWDOWN: 

***Jellies are still pretty bad. and there's been a lot of seaweed.

SATURDAY: Waist plus in the morning, dropping some in the afternoon as the low pulls away and the wind dies down. Wind N 20kts changing to NE 10-15kts late in the day.

SUNDAY: Wind dropping and surf dropping. But a beautiful beach day with sunshine and cooler/dryer weather. Wind NE 10kts. Probably going flat but some spots might see a knee to maybe thigh high wave at the right tide.

MONDAY: wind turns east 10-15kts.  Knee high windchop. up to waist high upcoast and not too choppy.

TUESDAY: East wind picks up a bit. Windchop builds knee-thigh high. waist high upcoast. Wind east 15+kts.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Wind drops off and so does the surf. East wind 10kts. Knee high or less.

NEXT WEEK: There's been talks of a Halloween swell coming, that's not going to happen. But a cold front moving through the the next day will give us a big blow going into the Halloween weekend and the following week kicking up near VAS conditions and big, nasty, drifty windchop.  There could be a clean-up day so stay tuned.

Long Range Surfcast:

After all of this moves on, it looks like a lot of onshore windchop to end the month and start November with a strong cold front possible on the 1st or 2nd.

The winter surf season:

A weak to moderate el nino, possibly a negative AO/NAO, along with some other factors I feel are going to lead us into a good winter for surf. Here's my preliminary forecast.

PRELIMINARY WINTER SURF OUTLOOK UPDATE

November-December: November will start with a lot of windchop, then end with some groundswells. December or January winter will kick in and give some good winter refraction and groundswells.
January-February: Turning colder, with many opportunities for solid groundswells/ refraction swells. 
We'll really have to keep an eye on the NAO/AO all winter since that's the strongest driver in how much cold air gets down into Florida and if the lows that push them down will go out to sea or not.

 

 

For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman

 

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NAO:  (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)

 

Check my Twitter feed below for up to the minute info :

and don't forget to LIKE  SURFIN WEATHERMAN on Facebook!

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Watch the new "The Impact Zone"  which features all the latest surf photos and video from the last swell, interviews with local people, and a detailed surf forecast for the upcoming week.  It'll be all interactive where you can chime in and make comments or ask questions.  Check it out live Sunday nights at a new time, 8pm!!!!

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If you have any pictures or video you want everyone to see, upload them to our surfing section of the YOUREPORT page or post on the Surfin Weatherman Facebook Page.

You can also stay up to date by following me on TWITTER ( SurfnWeatherman) and Facebook ( Wavecaster Wieland)

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James Wieland
Meteorologist/
Surf Forecaster
WPTV HD /
News Channel 5
West Palm Beach/
Treasure Coast
http://wptv.com/surfing
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