Palm Beach Surf Forecast, Updated local surf forecast for SE Florida

Updated: July 31, 2015 - Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast.

REWIND: It's been flat, for a while...I don't think I remember what it's like to surf. Are we even surfers anymore? 

ON THE MAPS:

We've had this persistent trough in the east, man if this were winter we'd be getting some good surf! 
Finally the trough in the east will retrograde a bit allowing high pressure to nose back in over the weekend.  This will turn our winds onshore starting Saturday afternoon.  There could be a small grom wave from that. Nothing over knee high but a weak wave will be breaking.

IN THE TROPICS: 

Watching the Gulf with the tail end of a front lingering there. Models not really picking up on anything sparking up but anything left in the gulf this time of year needs to be watched.

Way out in the Atlantic a tropical wave is making quick headway across.  It had a window  to develop but now that window is closing.  We are in August now though and that means we start looking back to the coast of Africa for these waves to come off the coast and develop right away.  Models hinting at the Cape Verde season kicking in in a couple weeks with a couple waves spinning up.  It appears the Atlantic will start to straighten up and allow this to happen mid-late august so they could be onto something.  I'll keep an eye on it. Until then it doesn't look like much. Hang in there, the climatologically flattest month is over.

 THE LOWDOWN:

Weekend-early in the week: onshore flow kicks back in, very small scale wind wave breaking.

 

Long Ranger Surfcast:  Tropics may start to spark up in a couple weeks.  Stay tuned!

 

 

 

EL NINO AND LONG RANGE SURF OUTLOOK:

I've been following this year's el Nino since it's been developing.  It is full blown now, even considered a strong el nino at the moment. 

Bad news is,  Not a lot of tropical activity so summer will be a bummer. Most things that will finally get going will be 'home grown' .... developing closer to the coast.  That could give a quick shot of swell, but will also make it stormy.  Also, El nino years the hurricane season shuts down early, like Late September or sooner will be the last one to form.

Good news is the winter should be above average for surf.  I would hope with the tropics shutting down early, the winter will kick in early but a lot of times it stays stagnant for a month before winter starts to kick in. The winter season will see a lot of southern track storms, Cool and wet for Florida which means frequent storms rolling by.  However, What effects us more is the NAO.  If that thing doesn't go negative this winter, that will not allow the full potential of the el nino surf season to be realized here.  Having a negative NAO through the winter means all those big storms rolling through the south and east will move offshore, instead of hugging the coast.  This of course will allow for good groundswell generation through the winter.  The past couple winters had mainly a positive NAO.

More good news is, I've researched the past 5 or so el nino years and found the Summer after is very active for the tropics. Well I guess that can be a bad news too also depending on if we get slammed. 

So all in all the extended forecast looks good, we're just going to have to wait....especially us here in south Florida.

 

For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman

 

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NAO:  (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)

 

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James Wieland
Meteorologist/
Surf Forecaster
WPTV HD /
News Channel 5
West Palm Beach/
Treasure Coast

http://wptv.com/surfing

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