Palm Beach Surf Forecast, Updated local surf forecast for SE Florida

Updated: October 19, 2014 - Detailed Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast:
Rewind:  Gonzalo swell really kicked in Saturday with light winds and glassy conditions upcoast. Near epic conditions! Photo by Louis Barr:

 

ON THE MAPS:  (next update Wednesday)

Gonzalo now extra-tropical and racing toward the UK. Waves from it are ending. Cold front with associated North surge behind it stalls in central Florida, but it looks like it'll be enough to send a little swell down to Palm beach County by Tuesday.  With the front stalled just to the north, the wind looks to cooperate with offshores expected.

This front will help siphon tropical moisture, and possibly a tropical system out of the Gulf and over south Florida by the end of the week. Lots of variables going on here so nothing pinned down quite yet.  Bother reliable models show a low deepening in the Gulf/NW Caribbean moving toward Florida. The Euro keeps it in the gulf and up the west coast, while the gfs brings it right over us, or the Florida straits then into the Bahamas. To complicated to call right now but I'll be watching how it develops.  Either way it looks like surf should pick up again by the end of the week and weekend.

THE LOWDOWN: 

***Jellies are still pretty bad.  Also, A lot of baitfish, Tarpon, and sharks are roaming around the line-ups.

MONDAY: Knee-thigh high upcoast with some bump on it, with winds turning onshore. PBC will be knee high or less in the morning, possibly building a bit by the end of the day with winds turning SE 10kts.

TUESDAY:  New NE/NNE swell builds in. Waist high though central PBC. Wind light SW in the morning with clean-ish conditions, possibly staying offshore all day. Low tide 1pm.

WEDNESDAY: Swell fades knee high or less.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Possibly a new NE wind surge pushing the front south, and bumping up the windswell .

WEEKEND: Keeping an eye on the system in the gulf to see how it develops, possible building windchop Friday through the weekend. Local winds up in the air until a better forecast can be pinned down.

 

Long Range Surfcast:

After all of this moves on, it looks like a lot of onshore windchop to end the month and start November.

The winter surf season:

A neutral ENSO or el nino, a negative AO/NAO, along with some other factors I feel are going to lead us into a good winter for surf. Here's my preliminary forecast.

PRELIMINARY WINTER SURF OUTLOOK UPDATE

November-December: November will start with a lot of windchop, then end with some groundswells. December or January winter will kick in and give some good winter refraction and groundswells.
January-February: Turning colder, with many opportunities for solid groundswells/ refraction swells.  Hopefully you bought that toasty wetsuit because you'll be using it a lot. and hopefully our sandbars will handle the swell and break good.

 

For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman

 

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NAO:  (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)

 

Check my Twitter feed below for up to the minute info :

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Watch the new "The Impact Zone"  which features all the latest surf photos and video from the last swell, interviews with local people, and a detailed surf forecast for the upcoming week.  It'll be all interactive where you can chime in and make comments or ask questions.  Check it out live Sunday nights at a new time, 8pm!!!!

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If you have any pictures or video you want everyone to see, upload them to our surfing section of the YOUREPORT page or post on the Surfin Weatherman Facebook Page.

You can also stay up to date by following me on TWITTER ( SurfnWeatherman) and Facebook ( Wavecaster Wieland)

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James Wieland
Meteorologist/
Surf Forecaster
WPTV HD /
News Channel 5
West Palm Beach/
Treasure Coast
http://wptv.com/surfing
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