Palm Beach Surf Forecast, Updated local surf forecast for SE Florida

Updated: July 28, 2015 - Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast.

REWIND: It's been flat, for a while...it's brutal.

ON THE MAPS:

Well, we had a chance, and now it's gone.   Low pressure formed in the gulf today but stayed pretty weak.  It will drift northward and weaken, not really bringing any chance for waves. Models backed way off over the weekend on spinning it up and our wave chances went out the window.

We could see a small bump up next week when high pressure builds back our way and the SE wind picks up a bit Monday or Tuesday.

Otherwise it's going to remain pretty small scale to flat through the week.

 

 THE LOWDOWN:

Ankle high to  Flat

 

Long Ranger Surfcast:  Small SE windswell bump up early next week possible. Otherwise nothing on the maps right now. Stay tuned!

 

 

 

EL NINO AND LONG RANGE SURF OUTLOOK:

I've been following this year's el Nino since it's been developing.  It is full blown now, even considered a strong el nino at the moment. 

Bad news is,  Not a lot of tropical activity so summer will be a bummer. Most things that will finally get going will be 'home grown' .... developing closer to the coast.  That could give a quick shot of swell, but will also make it stormy.  Also, El nino years the hurricane season shuts down early, like Late September or sooner will be the last one to form.

Good news is the winter should be above average for surf.  I would hope with the tropics shutting down early, the winter will kick in early but a lot of times it stays stagnant for a month before winter starts to kick in. The winter season will see a lot of southern track storms, Cool and wet for Florida which means frequent storms rolling by.  However, What effects us more is the NAO.  If that thing doesn't go negative this winter, that will not allow the full potential of the el nino surf season to be realized here.  Having a negative NAO through the winter means all those big storms rolling through the south and east will move offshore, instead of hugging the coast.  This of course will allow for good groundswell generation through the winter.  The past couple winters had mainly a positive NAO.

More good news is, I've researched the past 5 or so el nino years and found the Summer after is very active for the tropics. Well I guess that can be a bad news too also depending on if we get slammed. 

So all in all the extended forecast looks good, we're just going to have to wait....especially us here in south Florida.

 

For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman

 

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NAO:  (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)

 

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James Wieland
Meteorologist/
Surf Forecaster
WPTV HD /
News Channel 5
West Palm Beach/
Treasure Coast

http://wptv.com/surfing

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