Palm Beach Surf Forecast, Updated local surf forecast for SE Florida

Updated: December 20, 2014 - Detailed Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast:

Rewind:  It's been pretty flat since the big swell, which seems forever ago now. lol


Weak low pressure forming off the Carolinas. There is a small fetch there, but not enough to send much. If anything it'll send a small swell to the wave magnet spots on Monday.  Tracking a strong cold front that'll move through Christmas eve night.  Latest model runs has this delayed about 12hrs.  If this trend holds, it will look more like Christmas afternoon than morning for waves.  There is a strong WNW wind surge behind the front, enough I feel that will give us some refraction swell. It won't last too long though, hopefully not coming all at night.  Before the front however, it's looking like a little south swell will kick up, which we haven't had in a while.


SUNDAY: Flat. light SE wind.

MONDAY: Small NE swell maybe knee high loggable at the low tide magnet spots. Wind SSE 10-15kts.

TUESDAY: Building SSE windswell as the SSE wind picks up. Building surf to knee high+ by the end of the day. Wind SSE 10-20kts.

WEDNESDAY:  South windswell as the front moves south. Wind picks up more SSE then South 20kts.  Surf knee-thigh high at the right spots.  Lots of rights and sweeping current up the beach.

CHRISTMAS DAY:  Wind turns WNW and blows 25kts.  Refraction swell builds in. Exact timing up in the air right now though. Models trending toward later but stay tuned. Nothing huge either, waist high, maybe chest.

Long Range Surfcast: 

Low pressure strengthens and grows in the middle of the north Atlantic during this time.  It blows up into a rather huge storm and moves slowly south before unwinding.  It is kind-of in our swell window, just very far away.  It does look to get strong enough though to send a long period swell the distance.  Main focus will be Caribbean but we could sneak by with a little bump up over the weekend. That may arrive over the end of the weekend at spots out of the Bahama shadow. Will probably be very inconsistent, very long period stuff breaking in odd places.

After that it looks like we will swing into a more active weather pattern with cold fronts and lows every few days or so. Some giving windchop like possibly new year's day, and some swell. This fast moving active weather pattern should last through about mid January before it slows down.  The NAO looks like it's going to tank in the next couple weeks so we could be looking at some chilly waves coming our way! Stay tuned!!

Next update: SUNDAY

The winter surf season:

A weak el nino, possibly a negative AO/NAO, along with some other factors I feel are going to lead us into a very good winter for surf. Here's my updated forecast. (will continue to update)


January-February: Turning much colder and more active, with many opportunities for solid groundswells/ refraction swells through the first half of January, then slowing down for the second half.  We should get a few more big true groundswells through the season.
February we normally slow down with the number of swells but I think this year we will pick it back up.

Early look at the spring looks good for surf too!


For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman




NAO:  (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)


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James Wieland
Surf Forecaster
News Channel 5
West Palm Beach/
Treasure Coast

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