Palm Beach Surf Forecast, Updated local surf forecast for SE Florida

Updated: December 17, 2014 - Detailed Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast:

Rewind:  It's been pretty flat since the big swell.
 

ON THE MAPS:  

Tranquil weather sits over Florida for a while longer. A weak cold front washes out as it pushes down the peninsula Wednesday. Not much swell potential there. Another weak one for the weekend. Low pressure, or a series of lows will move off the Carolina coast over the weekend.  There is some swell potential with this, just not 100% at the moment.  Models keep flipping back and forth with how far off the low gets and how big the fetch is. Latest run is promising, but it'll probably change a for a couple more days before it gets locked in.  I feel we will at least get a small swell from it early in the week depending on how it plays out. Models still a little confused. Better bet will be Christmas Day still as a strong cold front will move through Christmas eve afternoon.  (see long range below)

THE LOWDOWN: 

WEDNESDAY: Weak front moves through. Doesn't produce any swell. stays knee high or less. Wind NW 5-10mph.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: knee high or less. Light north wind turning east then southeast.

WEEKEND: Pretty much flat. Light SE wind.

Long Range Surfcast:  Still keeping en eye on Christmas week. The picture is starting to get a little clearer. (a little) Big cold front will move through Christmas eve and send a good blast of WNW wind and cold weather after it moves through. This will give us a decent refraction swell. Timing right now looks like the front will move through Christmas eve so that would build in a refraction swell either late in the day or overnight and be there for all the good little boys and girls Christmas morning. With more of a WNW trajectory the focus should be central and northern PBC.  I feel refraction swells that come from more of a NNW wind hit more in south county, and WNW hit more in central/north county. In general, the wind has to blow for about 12-15hrs before the swell starts pushing in. There is still a lot of unpredictability to these types of swells so these rules aren't set in stone.

After that it looks like we will swing into a more active weather pattern with cold fronts and lows every few days. Some giving windchop, some swell. This fast moving active weather pattern should last through about mid January before it slows down.  The NAO looks like it's going to tank in the next couple weeks so we could be looking at some chilly waves coming our way! Stay tuned!!

Next update: Friday.

The winter surf season:

A weak el nino, possibly a negative AO/NAO, along with some other factors I feel are going to lead us into a very good winter for surf. Here's my updated forecast. (will continue to update)

UPDATED WINTER SURF OUTLOOK


January-February: Turning much colder and more active, with many opportunities for solid groundswells/ refraction swells through the first half of January, then slowing down for the second half.  We should get a few more big true groundswells through the season.
February we normally slow down with the number of swells but I think this year we will pick it back up.


Early look at the spring looks good for surf too!

 

For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman

 

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NAO:  (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)

 

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James Wieland
Meteorologist/
Surf Forecaster
WPTV HD /
News Channel 5
West Palm Beach/
Treasure Coast
http://wptv.com/surfing
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