Palm Beach Surf Forecast, Updated local surf forecast for SE Florida

Updated: July 23, 2014 - Detailed Surf forecast for the Palm Beaches and Treasure Coast:

Sorry I haven't updated in a while, I've been out of town then came back to get slammed at work thanks to Arthur!!!

Rewind: There's been some small swell upcoast but south Florida hasn't been above knee high for a while.

Weather Synopsis: This same wet and flat weather pattern has persisted for a while.  It doesn't look to break anytime soon either. We had TD#2 form but it quickly died out. 

The Low Down

Water Temps:  85. 

LOOKING AHEAD, LONG RANGE FORECAST:  Long range models showing a tropical wave moving though the straights around the 3rd or 4th which would give us a small bump up in windchop.  That's still way in advance so we'll see. 

Still waiting for el NINO to kick in.  We have the warmer water but it's only shallow and we still don't have the pressure anomalies that go along with el nino.  It is still forecast to kick in around the end of summer, but models are trending it to be weaker that originally forecast. The effects right now are still somewhat the same, strong upper level shearing through the Caribbean. We also have a lot of dry Saharan air in the tropical Atlantic which inhibits development.  That's what killed last year's season.

El nino years bring some erratic tracks too, which can be good for surf if we get a storm to do some loops out there.  El Nino years also keep the tropical activity close to home.  A lot of home grown type storms that develop close to land, and fewer long track storms that cross the Atlantic.

El ninos usually last about a year though and as we go into next winter, we could be looking at a very good surf season.  Also, I've researched the past 5 el ninos and made a startling discovery.... 4 out of 5 hurricane seasons AFTER the el nino years were off the charts with activity.  20+ storms form. We shall see.

For more updates, Follow me on Twitter and Instagram for in the field and on the go updates: @surfnweatherman

Not many updates until we at least get a chance for some surf.

Still trying to find another computer to do the IMPACT ZONE show on.  Hang in there!  I'll find one!

 

NAO:  (We're looking for it to be negative in the winter)

The Arctic Oscillation: (looking for negative in the winter)

The PNA (we are looking for this to be POSITIVE in the winter)

 

Check my Twitter feed below for up to the minute info :

and don't forget to LIKE  SURFIN WEATHERMAN on Facebook!

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Watch the new "The Impact Zone"  which features all the latest surf photos and video from the last swell, interviews with local people, and a detailed surf forecast for the upcoming week.  It'll be all interactive where you can chime in and make comments or ask questions.  Check it out live Sunday nights at a new time, 8pm!!!!

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If you have any pictures or video you want everyone to see, upload them to our surfing section of the YOUREPORT page or post on the Surfin Weatherman Facebook Page.

You can also stay up to date by following me on TWITTER ( SurfnWeatherman) and Facebook ( Wavecaster Wieland)

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James Wieland
Meteorologist/
Surf Forecaster
WPTV HD /
News Channel 5
West Palm Beach/
Treasure Coast
http://wptv.com/surfing
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