September 10th is generally regarded as the half way point to hurricane season. And although you probably think this is a quiet season, we are right on target for an average year. So far we have seen 6 storms, which is on track with the average 5-6 storms by the first week of September.
We usually see two hurricanes, and we've had two from Bill and Fred. The only surprise is that both hurricanes have become major storms in the open Atlantic. Today Fred became a major hurricane in the far east Atlantic, and last month Bill became a major storm in the open Atlantic before impacting the Canadian Maritimes. normally we don't see our second intense hurricane until the last week of September.
What does the rest of the season hold? Well according to Bill Gray and his team at Colorado State, September may end up giving us fewer storms. They have begun forecasting hurricane probabilities for a two week period using the (MJO)Madden Jullian Oscillation and current activity in the tropics. Also factored in are the current hostile upper level winds in the Atlantic. The MJO forecast is below, and well as a graphic showing how wind shear disrupts storms.
