Erika is not looking impressive on the latest images tonight. Two areas of convection have emerged this evening, and the earlier 'center' near Guadeloupe has filled in. Flights during the day reported tropical storm force winds, but the low center is hard to track. It is likely reforming again under the deep convection, but which area...At this point there might not be a closed center, but NHC works on 6 hour trends, so it's possible they will keep this as a storm overnight, even though technically it might not be.
If Erika stay as a weak shallow system it's direction will be governed more by the high pressure area to the north. Should it intensify and become a vertically impressive storm, the upper wind flow will eventually send it on a northwest track off the Carolinas. But that seems unlikely. The most likely scenario is for a weak Erika to dissipate over the mountainous areas of Haiti or Puerto Rico, and become a rain maker for Florida after the holiday weekend, likely Tuesday.
