Even though Erika looked impressive on the satellite loops earlier this week, it was always difficult to find a closed low, an essential component of a tropical depression or storm. Yesterday several false circulations formed and dissipated. Tropical systems need to be well structured to strengthen into hurricanes, with a well developed core to support upward motion and energy transfer. This storm never had a chance, since wind shear followed it into the Caribbean. The only way Erika could strengthen again would be if the shear slacked for a day or two. But that seems unlikely at this point. The models tonight take Erika over the mountains of Hispaniola, with Pico Duarte's 10000' peak ready to tear what's left of Erika apart. Storms and mountains don't mix. It is unlikely this depression will last through Sunday.
I thought I'd include Erika 12 hours ago and now. Quite a difference.
Here's the spaghetti plot for tonight.
